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Obviously it is always a matter of opinion but I think that the 3 by-elections could be even more significant over the next week.

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Of course, if you read Rory Stewart's recent book you get a great insight into how dysfunctional

and amateur government is. I think people will make the next election not about principles but about leadership. On that basis I predict (and bet) that Sunak will retain power with a small majority in November 2024.

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