We almost won but we're winning

Our local election was a disaapointment but with a silver lining

While we had great hopes for our local Labour candidate in the 2nd May elections, the incumbent Tory proved too hard to beat. It was always going to be a hard ask given the incumbent is very popular and was defending a massive majority. We had hopes of riding the national wave of Tory discontent but as seasoned politicos know, local and national politics don’t play out the same way. In our ward, we have a sneaking feeling that an unexpected Independent candidate threw a sizeable spanner in the works. More on that later.

After a fairly miserable few days, I’m now absorbing and teasing out the learnings from this experience rather than descending into the familiar Labour pit of despondent navel-gazing. In that sense, I’m not as tribal as some colleagues so it is easier for me to be relatively objective.

People are lovely

There are a few standout learnings and observations. First, election officials are hard-working and do their best to ensure that British elections are fair. They’re also decent people. I was a teller at a polling station and the officials did their best to accommodate me, including frequent offers of tea and coffee. Most voters were happy to provide me with their polling number or other details. There were a few exceptions, almost exclusively sullen and angry Tories or those bemoaning the fact there was no Reform candidate on the poll.

I also attended one of the counts for the West Yorkshire mayoral election. Vote counters are just as hard-working as the officials although I’m not convinced that all count managers are as well trained as they might be. Nevertheless, I admire people who do a job where they are under near constant close, physical scrutiny. Imagine being in a goldfish bowl and being stared at from a 12-inch distance.

Canvassers, leaflet droppers, and garden board fitters are heroes. Door knocking is not for everyone. It represents a particular challenge for Labour supporters when canvassing in an area that has been ‘true blue’ Tory since the mid-1970’s. Who enjoys non-stop rejection? Only a masochist.

Regardless of their political position, most people in our area are polite and decent. A tiny minority are very difficult but we have safety protocols that ensure no one is at risk of harm. On that score, I have fond memories of accidentally knocking on the door of the local Reform leader. He answered in a fetching set of pyjamas and politely refused to take my leaflet. Then there was the ‘blue rinse’ retiree who charmingly beamed her support for the local Tory but was willing to take a leaflet. Then there were those voters for whom the cost of living crisis is a deep concern, especially those who live in the more deprived parts of our area. They got a lot of my attention.

I met Labour supporters who were desperate for change and wished us well. A few lifelong Tories flipped to Labour but many of those we identified as Tory struggled to admit their allegiance. Regardless of tribal loyalty, their obvious discomfort tells me that while people are fundamentally decent, they feel badly let down by a government that is falling apart. That’s not the same thing as winning locally but it gives me hope that we will beat the incumbent MP at the general election.

How can I say that when we were beaten locally?

By the numbers

There were genuine hurdles that proved too difficult to overcome on this occasion. In 2023, we came within 150 votes of beating out the Tory incumbent. At first, the thinking was that we only had to flip 75 to get a positive result. But that ignored the specifics of the 2024 Tory incumbent. She increased her majority at every election in which she stood since 2012. We needed to raise our share of the vote significantly AND see our opponent’s support collapse. We saw the latter - her support fell by 25% - but our support fell by four percent in absolute terms. Some colleagues believe that the surprisingly enthusiastic level of support for the new independent candidate - who achieved 10% vote share - was more than enough to tip the scales in favour of the Tory. That’s true in absolute terms but it is not the whole story.

What the actual happened?

Since we can never know individual voting intentions, I’m now straying into personal views larded with anecdotal evidence. The independent has strong name recognition as a past Labour candidate and as part of a local political ‘dynasty’ that goes back many years. He also serves on the local town council - as does our candidate, We underestimated that local element, thinking instead that it was mostly a straight Labour/Tory fight. As the election cycle turned, it became apparent that personal animosity between our candidate and the Independent spilt over onto the doorstep and into the voting booth. The good news is that we now know what that name recognition represents and can develop strategies to overcome that hurdle.

What about the local Tories more generally? I always felt that our 2024 opponent represented a huge problem for us. Our candidate had strong credentials and has undoubtedly achieved much that resonated with the community. But it wasn’t enough. Late in the day, our Tory opponent homed in on an important local planning issue for which we didn’t have a good response. In the last few days, this issue took on a life of its own in local community Facebook groups, We didn’t respond well. I am firmly of the belief that this issue alone cost us several hundred votes.

But in the end I have to ask myself one question. If a dodgy, no-name Labour candidate can beat Andy Street, one of the country’s most popular Tory mayors in a race where an independent was in the mix then why couldn’t we? It’s a difficult question, but one I believe we have to face in the hope of learning for the future. I am sure that part of the problem lies with the campaign, but part also lies with the candidate.

Candidatitis - the curse of an electoral team

Have you heard of candidatitis? It was a new one on me. Candidatitis is a condition that manifests with candidates who think they know more than the supporting and seasoned local politicos. Candidatitis shows up in a variety of ways but almost always means there is a degree of friction between the candidate, agent and campaign leads. For example, our candidate insisted that their wording on certain letters to voters be preferred over that written by those with many years of experience. That was despite the test evidence accumulated ahead of a particular campaign push. We know that had an adverse campaign impact. Then there’s the panic-induced insistence about canvassing in pet locations during the final stages of the election. How about an obsession with acquiring certain election materials at the risk of blowing out the budget? These and other issues added complexity and anxiety to an already high-voltage campaign.

I’m told that all election candidates suffer from candidatitis in some form or another and at some stage of the election. With experience and effort, most candidates can be steered back on course. In our case, the issues led to personnel changes part way through the election. Go figure,

That loss of continuity had some impact but I concluded that we didn’t have the right messages that might outflank our opposition in the right locations at the right time. How we address that question in future elections will have a significant influence on our ability to (finally) win in the local election. Let’s see if I am right or whether I’m pursuing a pipe dream.

But we are winning

What of the broader picture? It turns out that despite our loss, when all the wards in our constituency are accumulated, we beat out the Tories 41% to 33%. In a straight heads-up Labour/Tory fight, it becomes 55/45. That’s healthy at this stage of the cycle. Knowing that the local Greens almost always turn to Labour in the nationals gives me even more hope as they poll well locally and secure some wards. However, some Greens are drifting towards the more extreme end of left-wing politics so it is possible that support will ease.

We have a strong candidate and a team that are wholly committed to winning. Her positions on topics that matter throughout the constituency are well thought out, thorough and convincing. In short, she demonstrates a keen ear for what constituents want to see and hear, backed up by experience of the topics under discussion. That’s vital for winning against an incumbent who has been around since 2005, is proud of his inability to be whipped to the Tory party line and has a history of good constituent support.

All to play for? You bet! I’m up for the challenge and if you live close by then perhaps I’ll see you ‘on the doors.’